Market News- POET: Portland 04/20/21 8:17:48 AM
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April 20, 2021
- Corn planting is now at 8% complete, up 4% points vs last week and right at the 5-year average. The ECB advanced to 7% complete, led by IL at 12% and IN at 7%. Overall, the ECB is ahead of last year's pace, while the WCB is lagging. Corn emergence is only pegged at 2% complete.
- A couple concerning, but not surprising data points out on Brazil yesterday: first, IHS Markit lowered ther Brazilian corn production estimate to 104MMT from 108.6MMT (USDA is currently at 109MMT)…equates to a drop of 180MM bushels of production. Second, Brazil's AgRural added more states to the list of concern yesterday…Mato Grosso is now the only state not listed as a concern for Safrinha production. MG does account for about a third of total production, but that leaves two-thirds of the country as a concern for Safrinha production.
- Brazil has also suspended import duties on corn, soybeans, and soybean products through the end of the year. The hope is that the move will curb inflation due to rising global commodities prices. The country had previously suspended import taxes through March 31st on corn and Jan 15th on soybeans - so the current move just extends the previous policy change.
- Research firm APK-inform estimates new crop Ukraine production at 36.7MMT - up 6.7MMT vs last year's production. This would be a welcome sight for the export channel and would help offset some of the concern from Brazil's production losses. Ukraine has also historically been the largest supplier of corn to China, so this would hopefully take some stress of US corn exports next crop year.
- Export inspections yesterday came in at 60MM bushels - which was an 8 week low. China was the largest destination at 22MM bushels, followed by Mexico and Japan at 12.6MM and 8.8MM bushels, respectively. We've now shipped 1.545B bushels of corn so far in the 20/21 crop year - up 84% vs this time last year. China has now taken approximately 385MM bushels of their 915MM bushel commitments.
- The rains in the extended forecast continue to pull forward for the Dakotas - and really the entire cornbelt. Yesterday it was just the GFS model showing rains in North Dakota - and today the Euro model Is pulling it in to the extended forecast as well. We'll likely be hearing the "too much rain" drum if the forecast verifies - with portions of ND/SD receiving upwards of 6 inches of rain. Forecast through May 6th is below.